Red Bull confirm another driver deal as Mercedes preference becomes clear (2024)

The Formula 1 driver market shows no sign of slowing down any time soon with more dominoes set to fall in the coming weeks after news of Sergio Perez's new Red Bull deal and Esteban Ocon's Alpine exit

Two more seismic driver market announcements were made this week as F1's silly season rumbles on.

Usually, the driver merry-go-round doesn't begin to turn until some time near the summer break. But it burst into life in February when Lewis Hamilton stunned the sporting world by confirming he will quit Mercedes for Ferrari. It hasn't slowed down since and this week we had confirmation that Red Bull have committed to Sergio Perez and that Esteban Ocon is leaving Alpine.

There are still 11 seats unconfirmed for 2025 and some big-name drivers, including Carlos Sainz, Valtteri Bottas and Ocon, in need of a new home. We've looked into our crystal ball and here's how we think it will all pan out:

Red Bull

2024 drivers: Max Verstappen and Sergio Perez
Confirmed 2025 drivers: Max Verstappen and Sergio Perez

Now set in stone after this week's events. Mercedes will keep trying to tempt Verstappen away but he's staying for now, while Perez's extension took a few by surprise given his patchy form. He's now contracted to 2026, but Red Bull have never shied away from replacing underperforming drivers mid-season so Perez will need to deliver to keep his seat until then.

Ferrari

2024 drivers: Charles Leclerc and Carlos Sainz
Confirmed 2025 drivers: Charles Leclerc and Lewis Hamilton

One of the biggest driver moves ever was confirmed in early February with Hamilton starting afresh aged 40. The seven-time F1 champ faces a fight with Leclerc to be top dog in his new home and it remains to be seen how they will get along when competing against one another as team-mates. More on where Sainz is expected to land a little further down...

McLaren

2024 drivers: Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri
Confirmed 2025 drivers: Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri

McLaren have two supremely talented drivers tied down to long-term contracts, aged 24 and 23 respectively. They're set up for many years to come, if they can keep giving Norris and Piastri competitive cars. The most settled driver pairing on the grid, and some would argue the best, too.

Mercedes

2024 drivers: Lewis Hamilton and George Russell
Predicted 2025 drivers: George Russell and Andrea Kimi Antonelli

Now onto those who aren't yet set. Toto Wolff wants Russell to lead the team into the future and, unless Verstappen makes a huge U-turn, the Briton is likely to be joined by teenager Antonelli next year. Mercedes are desperate not to lose him to a rival, like they did with Verstappen as a teenager because they couldn't offer him an F1 drive as quickly as Red Bull did.

Aston Martin

2024 drivers: Fernando Alonso and Lance Stroll
Predicted 2025 drivers: Fernando Alonso and Lance Stroll

Alonso is now tied down to the end of 2026 so it all depends on whether owner Lawrence Stroll has the nerve to replace his own son. He probably does but, unless Lance quits himself, he's likely to stick around for another year at least. It's not official that the Canadian is staying, but chances are he is.

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2024 drivers: Daniel Ricciardo and Yuki Tsunoda
Predicted 2025 drivers: Yuki Tsunoda and Liam Lawson

Tsunoda has started the season in great form and has now been given an extension for 2025. Ricciardo, on the other hand, has struggled to get results and could lose his place on the grid if he can't improve. Reserve driver Lawson has a clause in his contract allowing him to leave for another team if he doesn't get a 2025 seat with a Red Bull team.

Haas

2024 drivers: Nico Hulkenberg and Kevin Magnussen
Predicted 2025 drivers: Oliver Bearman and Valtteri Bottas

Hulkenberg has signed up to the Audi project and British teenager Bearman is the overwhelming favourite to replace him. Magnussen may keep his place but his unspectacular form could see Bottas or Ocon signed instead. Many think the Frenchman is the favourite for this seat, but he may find the Audi project more appealing.

Williams

2024 drivers: Alex Albon and Logan Sargeant
Predicted 2025 drivers: Alex Albon and Carlos Sainz

British-Thai racer Albon has signed up for the long-haul with F1's sleeping giants. Sainz is the next key domino to fall and could join Audi, but the wind has turned in recent weeks and seems to be blowing towards Williams now. Bottas is also a contender to return to the team he drove and impressed for before he joined Mercedes. In any case, American Sargeant won't be getting a third year in F1.

Alpine

2024 drivers: Pierre Gasly and Esteban Ocon
Predicted 2025 drivers: Pierre Gasly and Jack Doohan

Alpine want Gasly to stay but the Frenchman is considering his options. The promise that he will be the clear number one could tempt him to put down roots. Reserve driver Doohan may get the nod to replace Ocon, though former academy driver Zhou could also return to the fold and China's first and only ever F1 driver has significant sponsor backing to strengthen his case. Mick Schumacher drives for Alpine in the World Endurance Championship and could also be a contender.

Sauber/Audi

2024 drivers: Valtteri Bottas and Zhou Guanyu
Predicted 2025 drivers: Nico Hulkenberg and Esteban Ocon

Audi have landed one of their top targets in Hulkenberg but, as mentioned, could lose the other, Sainz, to Williams. If they do, Ocon is believed to be their second choice. Bottas and Zhou are both all but confirmed to be leaving, but if either one of them has a chance of landing a new deal it's probably the Finn, because of his experience.